Community Day Shiny Rate Analysis

Survey Result

※As of August 15, 8:30pm

Almost all taps

The data reported that there is no or few Eevee who push Pokemon GO Plus（hereinafter Go plus）before tap.
And among data reported without or lack of Go plus usage, the data suggested to be equivalent to above from its capture rate.

Almost all Go plus

The data reported that it was captured by Go plus without or with few tap of Eevee.

All post data

conclusion

The shiny probability of Eevee is suggested to be “4 %” on community day.

The data of posts

Please look at thisspread sheet.

※the window above may be difficult to see on mobile phone. Please open from the link.

How to investigate

Announcement

I announced on Twitter before the event, and asked about ” the number of encounter and shiny, and the Go plus usage” of Eevee during the event. Then I gathered Twitter reply and DM.

Moreover, I got some answers from the people around Tivoli, the founder of this site.

Condition of answer

These three screenshots below were required as evidence.
①Screenshot of Eevee picture book before the event.
②Screenshot of Eevee picture book after the event.
③Screenshot of all shiny Eevee at Pokemon Box.

Collection of Range

・mainly from the link above, all the replies on Tivoli’s twitter account.
・all the DM for Tivoli’s twitter account.
・Friends outside Twitter of Tivoli (Team Investigation).

I gathered all the information of the screenshots above including before and after the event. And there is no data that was chosen by me.
However, there were a few information without screenshot. And they are considered to be difficult to calculate correctly the number of encounters.

How to gather （encounter, capture, shiny）

In announcement, I asked people the report of the number of encounter and shiny. From the screenshots before and after the event, I read out “the number they found” and “the number they captured” and tallied them.
In the case of the screenshot of shiny Eevee, I consider it is correct even if there is no screenshot.

How to gather （Go plus usage）

When there is a report of Go plus usage and when it is possible to guess “the Eevee who pushed Go plus before you make sure whether shiny or not by tap” among the number of encounters, I feed the rate.

when there is no report or lack of repost and it is difficult to estimate the rate, I feed ”-”.
However, in case of whole capture rate is about above 95%, it is considered that has few effect of Go plus, I feed “5%”.

Almost all tap data details

result

Judgement of Go Plus

The reports about the usage are trusted, however, there are many kinds of reports.

For example, when the data just said “it is manual”, it is considered to be 0% of Go plus usage.

But, it is vague and difficult to know whether Go plus is completely off or not.

If Go plus was on and was used to capture some Pokemon somehow, it is impossible to eliminate the effects on Eevee.

It is because even if you do not see untapped Eevee around, it may react some unseen Eevee.

Actually, I turn on Go plus when there is no untapped Eevee, and I always check what was reacted on Adventure note. It turns out that it reacted to unseen Eevee about once an hour.
（ I found shiny Eevee after turning on and sometimes I could not catch it because Go plus reacted to it…）
Considered from them and the high capture rate and reports, I tallied “almost all tapped data” from the data that the Go plus’s react to untapped Eevee would be less than 5%.

Consideration

This group is considered to be the most reliability of shiny rate against the number of encounters and considered that it is close to the actual probability.

However, there could be affected by Go Plus as it shows above, therefore, the data can be slightly biased.

The result is 3.95％, which means the expected probability is 4%.

Moreover, it is 72% within the whole posts, which shows that over 70 % of player tap and check nearly all Eevee.

The details of almost all Go plus data

Result

The judgement of Go plus

In addition to data reported that it is completely only Go Plus(complete auto), it is the data which shows that the untapped Go plus is about over 90% within the data reported it is only Go plus.

Consideration

The capture rate by Go plus is not able to be manipulated, therefore it can say it is the least arbitrariness data.


If the capture rates of the normal Eevee on Community day and the shiny Eevee are the same, they can be theoretically matched between the shiny rate against the number of encounters (including the run-away one) complete tap of and the shiny rate against the number of capture of complete Go plus.

This data is “mostly Go plus”, which occur a slight effect because of the manual way, therefore, it is a little but higher probability than the ideal value.

the whole capture rate is about 50%, the shiny rate against the number of encounters is a little over 2%, the shiny rate against the number of captures is a little over 4%.

Suggested from all tapped data, the shiny rate is 4% and the capture rate of normal and shiny is the same.

The judgement of basic capture rate

From data of the almost all go plus, the basic capture rate of Eevee on Community Day can be suggested.
※the related Pokémon on Community Day becomes the higher and more special basic capture rate.
Wild Pokémon is decided to have the basic capture rate per kinds of pokemon, additionally the level of the pokemon and the element of player, such like the way to capture, can decide the capture rate.

the capture rate sheet is here.
（I recommend you to have a look at it once because it has changed to new version from old one）
By means of the capture by Go plus, the elements of player side is the same. So, the way to calculate is designated to Go plus.

when the level of wild pokemon is the around the same, and the level of trainer is over 30 percent, the average of the Go plus capture rate per basic capture rate is like this;

The Eevee’s Go plus capture rate on Community Day, the boost and no boost is mixed to about 50%, so the basic capture rate would be 50%.

The general Eevee’s basic capture rate is 40％. So, it means that it is higher than usual on Community Day.

The Superiority or inferiority of tap and Go plus

The twice bigger number of encounters is needed by Go Plus.

Let’s say the basic capture rate of the target is 50％ and you can get the shiny 100% by tap.

This time, it is needed that 1.8 times bigger number of encounters when it is not boost and 2.2 when it is boost in order to exceed the value of the shiny capture number of complete Go plus than complete tap.

It is better to use complete tap if it is Cancel way

Compared that the normal capture spends us 20 seconds after from tap back to fiels screen at least one time, and 30 seconds after change the ball and throw the nuts, Go plus only spends 10 seconds.

in this case, there is a possibility that complete Go plus will win by each environmental condition.

However, there are some techniques such like “motion cancel” and “first catch” to cut animation of capture. This time allows to complete the capture after the tap once in 10 seconds, so much number of encounter than the at least half of Go plus can be gotten.

てぃぼりのタグ

	個体値ランクの解説と調べ方 12/28 09:56　tivoli
	キラ率調査ご協力のお願い 12/26 18:09　tivoli
	キラ率について（キラ率変更・調査報告・今後の調査） 12/26 18:09　tivoli
	【ステータス評価値④】CP・SCP・DCPランキング 10/18 11:51　tivoli

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