Zapdos Day Shiny Rate in JAPAN

Survey Results

※As of July 24, 10am

Therefore, it is suggested that the probability of shiny in Zapdos Day was 10 percent.

The data of posts

Please look at this spread sheet.

※the window above may be difficult to see on Smart phone. Please open from the link.

How to investigate

Announcement

I announced about this survey on Twitter and the article posted on this web site and asked, “how many times you tried” and “how many shiny you saw”.I gathered the answers from Twitter replies and DM, and comments on the article on this site. Moreover, I got some answers from people around Tivoli, the founder of this site.

Condition of answer

Basically,
①Screenshot of Zapdos picture book before the event
②Screenshot of Zapdos picture book after the event
③Screenshot of all shiny Zapdos on PokemonGO (this is only required when you see the shiny)
Those screenshots of two or three above were considers as evidence.
Also, we accepted some information without the screenshots.

Collection of range

・mainly from the link above, all the replies on tivoli’s twitter account.
・all the DM for Tivori’s twitter account.
・all the replies for this Website's twitter account.
・all the comments to the article.
・Friends outside Twitter of Tibvoli (Team Investigation).
・the members of Kyukyoku Kouryaku (ultimate strategy book) DB (team DB).

How to gather

All the information above are gathered.
The answer which includes several information at the same time are also gathred.
And there is no intentional data.

（If someone who locked his own twitter and was not followed by Tivoli replied the Tivoli’s Twitter, it was not reflected to the survey because Tivoli cannot see it. )

Speaking of the evidence, the ones that met the conditions above, the ones that we considered as trustable even though it only has a few evidences, and the ones given by people who usually connect Tivoli’s Twitter and if it was trustable, we considered it “true” and if it was not, “false”.
※False doesn’t mean it is not true but it is lack of evidence.

The details of investigation result

The data based on enough evidence

The data without evidence

Consideration

In this investigation, here was no vicious post because basically (simply, in the first place) I asked people to give the evidence and to make post visible and trustable. Even when there was lack of evidence, I was sure that the information was by good intentions.

And, I strongly announced people to send the information even if they never saw the shiny.

People are willing to tell a good result to others more than a bad result. Therefore, when people take so much time to post the evidence, they tend to tell us that they saw the shiny many times.

In contrast, when they saw the shiny less times or never, they don't feel like posting the information with the enough evidence because it’s insipid.

As a result, it is suggested that people with the evidence tended to post the information when they found more shiny.
On the other hand, the people without the evidence tended to simply tell us that they didn’t see the shiny that much.

The probability that can see the shiny more than once

If the probability of shiny were 10 percent, the probability that can see the shiny one per a raid would be like this;
The probability that can see it on the free pass at fifth time would be about 41 percent. In order to see it more than 90 percent, 22ed time (one raid per 8 minutes, 3 hours) is needed.

てぃぼりのタグ

	個体値ランクの解説と調べ方 12/28 09:56　tivoli
	キラ率調査ご協力のお願い 12/26 18:09　tivoli
	キラ率について（キラ率変更・調査報告・今後の調査） 12/26 18:09　tivoli
	【ステータス評価値④】CP・SCP・DCPランキング 10/18 11:51　tivoli

「てぃぼり」の記事一覧

てぃぼりのタグ

	個体値ランクの解説と調べ方 12/28 09:56　tivoli
	キラ率調査ご協力のお願い 12/26 18:09　tivoli
	キラ率について（キラ率変更・調査報告・今後の調査） 12/26 18:09　tivoli
	【ステータス評価値④】CP・SCP・DCPランキング 10/18 11:51　tivoli

「てぃぼり」の記事一覧